Pakistan’s commissioner for Indus waters has rejected India’s claim to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, calling it unrecognised under international law, following New Delhi’s move after a 2025 attack in Kashmir.
Pakistan’s stance on the Indus Waters Treaty underscores the fragility of water-sharing agreements in South Asia, where millions depend on the Indus river system for agriculture, power and drinking water amid climate pressures and population growth.
Pakistan’s commissioner for Indus waters, Syed Muhammad Mehar Ali Shah, stated on 4 January 2026 that India’s attempt to invoke abeyance on the Indus Waters Treaty lacks any basis in treaty law. Speaking on Geo News, Shah emphasised that terms like abeyance are not part of international agreements. He noted that the Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, prohibits unilateral suspension, breach or termination.
Shah highlighted three instances since April 2025 where India altered water flows in western rivers: twice in May and once in December. These involved brief increases followed by decreases, detected by Pakistan’s monitoring. He stressed that the treaty mandates natural flow patterns for the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers allocated to Pakistan.
The commissioner reiterated that any reduction in Pakistan’s water share would constitute an act of war. He referenced Article 12 of the Indus Waters Treaty, which allows modifications only through mutual consent. Without agreement, the pact remains fully enforced.
India Pakistan Water Dispute Escalates
The India Pakistan water dispute intensified in April 2025 when India announced the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance after an attack in Pahalgam, occupied Kashmir, killing 26 tourists. New Delhi blamed Islamabad without providing evidence, leading to the suspension and closure of the Attari border.
Pakistan denounced the move immediately, with President Asif Ali Zardari declaring that weaponising the Indus Waters Treaty would fail. The Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in June 2025 that India could not unilaterally hold the treaty in abeyance, affirming Pakistan’s position.
Shah pointed out that the Indus Waters Treaty was designed to endure political tensions, with built-in mechanisms for dispute resolution. These include bilateral talks, neutral experts or arbitration. He cited past violations, such as India’s Salal Dam, resolved through the treaty, and the Baglihar Dam, where a neutral expert’s decision applied only to that project.
Recent concerns involve India’s hydroelectric projects on western rivers. Pakistan has objected to the 850 MW Ratle plant on the Chenab, as well as Kiru and Kwar projects. Designs were shared before April 2025, but cooperation halted post-abeyance.
Pakistan Indus Commissioner Details Legal Stance
As Pakistan Indus commissioner, Shah explained that the treaty allocates eastern rivers, Sutlej, Beas and Ravi to India, often leaving them dry outside flood seasons. Western rivers must flow naturally to Pakistan, with India permitted limited hydroelectric use under strict guidelines.
He dismissed India’s abeyance as a coined term, saying: “There is no room for stopping or partially stopping Pakistan’s water.” Shah added that Pakistan pursues formal legal and diplomatic responses to India’s non-cooperation.
The commissioner noted no fixed water volume for Pakistan but adherence to natural patterns. Monitoring shows current flows remain normal, but episodic alterations raise alarms in the India Pakistan water dispute.
Historical context reveals ongoing frictions. In 1948, India halted flows to Pakistan, prompting UN intervention. The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, aimed to prevent such actions.
Background
The Indus Waters Treaty divides the Indus basin, vital for 300 million people. Pakistan receives 80% of the water, relying on it for 90% of agriculture. India uses eastern rivers fully and western ones for non-consumptive purposes.
Disputes have arisen over 10 projects since 1960. The Baglihar ruling in 2007 favoured India on design but upheld treaty principles. Pakistan filed for general interpretation at the Court of Arbitration after that.
Climate change exacerbates the India Pakistan water dispute, with glacial melt affecting flows. A 2024 Stimson Center report urged strengthening the treaty against politicisation.
India’s 2023 and 2024 notices sought modifications, citing Pakistan’s intransigence. These preceded the 2025 abeyance, which Pakistan views as escalation.
In December 2025, Pakistan’s foreign minister raised concerns over water weaponisation, urging international attention.
What’s Next
Diplomatic channels remain open, but Pakistan may escalate to the World Bank or UN if flows disrupt. Shah indicated calibrated steps, including potential arbitration on projects like Ratle.
India has stated it will divert waters internally, per a June 2025 announcement. This could strain relations further in the India Pakistan water dispute.
Experts predict talks in 2026, given the treaty’s resilience. However, without cooperation, the Indus Waters Treaty faces its gravest test.
The Indus treaty abeyance claim highlights risks to regional stability, but the pact’s framework offers paths to resolution.
Pakistan remains vigilant on the Indus Waters Treaty, committed to its enforcement for shared prosperity.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, January 5th, 2026
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