As Bangladesh Election 2026 approaches, the political landscape remains uncertain with a week left for voters to decide. Recent surveys conducted by Innovision Consulting and others reveal a closely contested race between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat e Islami, with a significant portion of the electorate still undecided.
Innovision’s latest panel survey, involving over 20,000 respondents, indicates that 52.8% of decided voters support BNP, while 31% back Jamaat. This survey highlights a notable shift, as 26.6% of BNP’s support comes from previously undecided voters, compared to 14.1% for Jamaat. Despite the lead, the race remains tight, with about one-third of voters still undecided.
Historically, BNP has maintained strongholds in central and southeastern regions, while Jamaat has gained traction in the northwest and southwest. The Awami League, although not leading, has increased its share by 4 percentage points since February 2025, according to Innovision.
As Jamaat contests in 224 constituencies, their concentrated efforts and targeted campaigns could sway the undecided voters. With Tarique Rahman as a potential prime ministerial candidate, the BNP’s position appears strong, yet Jamaat’s strategic focus might narrow the gap.
The election outcome remains unpredictable, with the margin of national vote share unlikely to exceed 12%. As Bangladesh anticipates the polls, the possibility of a nail-biting finish looms, with Jamaat potentially capturing competitive seats.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, February 5th, 2026
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