India GDP Growth: India’s economy is projected to grow by 7.6% in the fiscal year 2025-26, according to the second advanced estimates released by the National Statistics Office. This growth forecast is based on a revised GDP series with a new base year of 2022-23, aligning India’s economic data with international standards.
The Chief Economic Advisor, V Anantha Nageswaran, has indicated that the real GDP growth for the following fiscal year, 2026-27, is expected to range between 7% and 7.4%. This projection is higher than earlier estimates and reflects the strength of domestic consumption despite global economic headwinds.
The transition to a new base year has resulted in a nominal GDP projection of ₹345.5 lakh crore for 2025-26, slightly lower than previous estimates. This adjustment has led to a minor upward revision in the fiscal deficit estimate to 4.53% of GDP.
Sector-wise, manufacturing is anticipated to be the top performer with an 11.5% growth, while services are expected to grow at 9%. However, agriculture’s nominal growth remains low at 0.3%, reflecting challenges in the agrarian economy.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure is projected to grow at 7.7%, indicating robust domestic demand. The revised GDP figures have sparked discussions among economists, with some expressing surprise at the downward revision of nominal GDP, which affects fiscal deficit and debt projections.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, February 28th, 2026
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