Bangladesh’s merchandise exports fell by 6% in November 2025, reaching $3.89 billion, as mounting economic pressures from rising debt and inflation strain the nation’s recovery efforts. Officials attribute the slump to global tariffs and competition, with cumulative earnings for July-November barely up 0.62% at $20 billion.
This downturn underscores vulnerabilities in South Asia’s export-dependent economies, where Bangladesh‘s struggles could ripple through regional trade networks, supply chains, and remittance flows. As a key player in garments and textiles, the country’s woes highlight the need for diversified markets to counter global headwinds affecting neighbours like India and Pakistan.
Bangladesh Exports Decline Signals Four-Month Slump
Bangladesh exports decline continued into its fourth straight month in November 2025, with earnings dropping $230 million short of the previous year’s figure. The Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) reported total shipments at $3.89 billion, a 5.54% decrease from $4.11 billion in November 2024. This follows declines of 2.93% in August ($3.91 billion versus $4.03 billion), 4.61% in September ($3.62 billion versus $3.80 billion), and 7.43% in October ($3.82 billion versus $4.13 billion).
The ready-made garments (RMG) sector, which accounts for over 80% of exports, bore the brunt, earning $3.14 billion. A 5% fall from $3.30 billion last year. EPB data shows the July-November period totalled $20 billion, edging up just 0.62% year-on-year, masking deeper sectoral weaknesses.
A 20% countervailing duty imposed by the United States on Bangladeshi products from 7 August 2025 exacerbated the trend. Exporters rushed shipments in July, boosting that month’s figures by 25%, but subsequent months suffered as buyers adjusted. China’s redirected exports to the European Union, following high US tariffs on its goods, further eroded Bangladesh’s market share in apparel.
Mohiuddin Rubel, managing director of Bangladesh Apparel Exchange and former BGMEA director, warned of the knitwear sector’s vulnerability. “Bangladesh has maintained its position despite fluctuations in demand in the global market,” he said. “However, the decline in orders in the knitwear sector is giving us a clear warning, without new markets, new products and technology investments, it will be difficult to sustain growth in the future.”
RMG Sector Faces Sustained Global Headwinds
The RMG industry’s woes tie directly to Bangladesh exports decline, with EPB noting reduced orders amid weakening global demand. ABM Shamsuddin Ahmed, a BGMEA director, pointed to Chinese competition as a key factor, stating it has shrunk Bangladesh’s EU foothold. Officials urge diversification into non-traditional markets like Africa and Latin America to offset losses.
Bangladesh Debt Rise Intensifies Repayment Pressures
Parallel to the Bangladesh exports decline, the nation’s external debt burden has swelled, complicating fiscal recovery. The World Bank’s International Debt Report 2025 reveals total foreign debt reached $104.48 billion by end-2024, a 42% jump from $73.55 billion in 2020. Repayments surged to $7.3 billion in 2024, a 617% increase from 2010 levels, the fastest rise in South Asia.
This escalation has shifted Bangladesh’s debt sustainability risk from low to moderate, per World Bank-IMF assessments. The country sources 26% of its external loans from the World Bank, primarily via IDA, followed by the Asian Development Bank and Japan. Stricter lender conditions on grace periods, maturities, and rates have doubled the repayment load since pre-Covid times.
Dr Zahid Hussain, former chief economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, highlighted the implications. “The pressure on foreign debt has been increasing since Covid,” he noted. “Development partners are giving stricter conditions than before in all areas, grace period, maturity period, and interest rate. As a result, the burden of interest and principal repayments is increasing noticeably.” He added: “If the debt pressure cannot be reduced, the economy may face more hardship in the future.”
Bangladesh, along with Nigeria and Pakistan, absorbs 30% of total IDA loans, amplifying regional debt concerns. The debt-to-exports ratio now stands at 192%, underscoring the linkage between Bangladesh exports decline and fiscal strain.
Bangladesh Inflation November Climbs to 8.29%
Economic pressures Bangladesh faces extend to consumer costs, with Bangladesh inflation November ticking up to 8.29% on a point-to-point basis, from 8.17% in October. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) attributes the rise mainly to food prices, which increased to 7.36% from 7.08%.
Non-food inflation eased slightly to 9.08% from 9.13%, while rural rates hit 8.26% (up from 8.16%) and urban 8.39% (up from 8.33%). This marks a reversal after October’s dip, though levels remain below November 2024’s 11.38%.
The uptick strains households amid stagnant wages and high energy costs, feeding into broader economic pressures Bangladesh endures.
Broader Economic Pressures Bangladesh Grapples With
Beyond core indicators, economic pressures Bangladesh contends with include a slumping stock market and revenue shortfalls. Dhaka Stock Exchange trading hit a six-month low of Tk267 crore on a recent Sunday, with the index dropping 141 points. The Purchasing Managers Index fell to 54 in November from 61.8 in October, signalling slowed expansion due to weak demand and delayed investments.
Fiscal woes compound the issue: a Tk17,000 crore revenue deficit in July-October FY2025-26, against a revised NBR target of Tk499,000 crore to meet IMF conditions. High loan rates, power shortages, and “tax terrorism” via elevated AIT and TDS rates irk businesses. Syed Nasim Manzur, managing director of Apex Footwear, decried indiscriminate taxation, while Professor Abu Ahmed of ICB called for alternative revenue strategies.
Business registration hurdles, corruption risks, and capital market distrust, stemming from the 2010 crash further stifle growth.
Background: Post-Covid Vulnerabilities Exposed
Bangladesh’s economic trajectory shifted post-Covid, with external debt doubling and exports initially surging on stimulus but now faltering. The World Bank notes a 253% repayment hike over 15 years, while EPB data reflects tariff impacts from mid-2025. Inflation has hovered around 8% for months, per BBS trends, amid supply shocks and global slowdowns.
What’s Next: Policy Shifts on Horizon
Government officials signal reforms, including export incentives and debt restructuring talks with multilaterals. EPB plans market diversification drives, while BBS monitors inflation for monetary adjustments. Addressing Bangladesh debt rise remains key to unlocking IMF tranches.
Tackling the Bangladesh exports decline will define the coming quarters, as sustained recovery hinges on bolstering trade resilience amid intertwined fiscal and inflationary risks.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, December 11th, 2025
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