India is set to receive 109% of the average monsoon rainfall in September 2025, impacting crops and water resources. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts above-average monsoon rainfall across India in September 2025, predicting 109% of the long-term average, starting Sunday, August 31, 2025, potentially affecting agriculture and flood risks.
Why it Matters
India’s 2025 rainfall forecast is critical for South Asia, as 70% of India’s annual rainfall supports agriculture, influences food prices, and affects regional economies, including those of Pakistan and Bangladesh, which are reliant on similar monsoon patterns.
India Monsoon Rainfall 2025 Forecast Details
The IMD announced on Sunday, August 31, 2025, that India’s rainfall for September is expected to reach 109% of the long-period average (LPA) of 167.9 mm, based on data from 1971 to 2020. According to the IMD, “Most regions, except the northeast, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, will see above-normal rainfall.” This follows a 5% above-normal rainfall in August 2025, signaling a robust season.
Agricultural Impacts
The monsoon, vital for India’s USD 4 trillion economy, supports nearly 50% of its unirrigated farmland. Above-average rainfall could boost rice, cotton, soybean, corn, and pulse production but risks damage as harvesting begins mid-September. The Ministry of Agriculture noted, “Excess rains may delay harvests in central India.” Central and southern India, including Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, are set to receive the heaviest rainfall, potentially aiding reservoir replenishment but raising flood concerns.
Regional Variations
The forecast highlights regional disparities. Northwest India is expected to see normal rainfall (92–108% of LPA), while northeast India, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala may face below-normal rains (<94% of LPA). According to Skymet, “Northeast India’s deficit could impact tea production.” These variations stem from neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, with no significant La Niña influence until later in the season.
Climate and Economic Context
The IMD attributes the strong forecast to high sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, enhancing moisture. Climate change is shifting patterns, with deserts receiving more rain while rainforests dry. The 2025 monsoon, arriving early on Saturday, May 24, 2025, in Kerala, reflects these shifts. Economically, good rains could lower food inflation (3.34% in March 2025) and boost India’s rice and onion exports, per government data.
Background
India’s southwest monsoon (June–September) delivers 70% of its annual rainfall, critical for 1.4 billion people. The 2024 season saw a 106% increase in LPA, lifting export curbs on rice and onions. Historical data from 1901to 2024 show that stronger monsoons correlate with reduced Eurasian snow cover and neutral ENSO, both of which were present in 2025. However, extreme rainfall events are rising, with a 2025 study in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science noting increased frequency due to global warming.
What’s Next
As September 2025 unfolds, the India monsoon rainfall 2025 forecast will shape agricultural output and flood preparedness, with IMD updates expected by Monday, September 15, 2025.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, September 1st, 2025
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