India’s reliance on Russian crude wanes as Trump India trade deal looms, prompting shifts to alternative suppliers and potential economic ripple effects in South Asia.
New Delhi, India – India’s Russian oil imports fell to 1.215 million barrels per day in January, down 12 per cent from December’s 1.38 million. This decline occurs amid US India oil talks and a Trump India trade deal announcement that seeks to end New Delhi’s purchases of Russian crude in exchange for lower US tariffs.
The drop in India Russian oil imports highlights New Delhi’s efforts to diversify energy sources under Western pressure. As South Asia’s top oil importer, India’s moves could influence regional fuel prices and supply chains. Pakistan and Bangladesh may face higher costs if global oil dynamics shift.
Russian Oil Decline India Hits New Low
India Russian oil imports have trended downward since late 2025. In December, imports stood at 1.38 million barrels per day, a 22 per cent drop from November. January’s figure marks the lowest since mid-2025, according to trade data.
Nayara refinery took 0.41 million barrels per day of Russian crude in January. Indian Oil Corp handled 0.58 million. Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd imported 0.19 million. Reliance Industries Ltd imported none.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan forecast India Russian oil imports at 0.8 to 1.0 million barrels per day this year. That would represent 17 to 21 per cent of total crude imports. Russian oil has supported India’s energy needs since 2022 sanctions on Moscow over Ukraine.
Indian refiners now seek alternatives. They have increased tenders for Iraqi and Omani crude. Brazilian supplies also rise. Indian Oil Corp plans more Brazilian crude from April.
Reliance Industries Ltd will buy up to 150000 barrels per day of Russian oil from February for its domestic refinery. This suggests a partial rebound but overall Russian oil decline India persists.
US India Oil Talks Drive Changes
US India oil talks focus on curbing Russian imports. On 2 February 2026, US President Donald Trump announced a Trump India trade deal. It cuts US tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent.
In return, India agrees to halt Russia oil purchases. New Delhi will buy US energy worth over USD 500 billion. This includes coal, technology and agricultural products. India will reduce its tariffs on US goods to zero.
Trump stated on social media: “They will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO.”
A White House official noted the deal rescinds a 25 per cent punitive duty on Indian imports tied to Russian oil buys. This stacked on a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff.
India’s commerce and foreign ministries did not respond to queries. As of 2 February 2026, no presidential proclamation formalised the changes.
Russia’s foreign ministry said: “no reason to believe that India had reconsidered its approach to Russian oil imports following a trade deal that New Delhi struck with the U.S.”
Two refining sources confirmed: “Indian refiners have not been told by the government to stop buying Russian oil and would need a wind-down period to complete purchases already in process.”
The Trump India trade deal builds on prior tensions. Last August, Trump doubled duties to 50 per cent to pressure India on Russian oil. Earlier this month, he warned of further increases.
India covers 90 per cent of its oil needs through imports. Cheaper Russian crude lowered costs post-2022 sanctions. Now, Venezuelan oil may replace some volumes under the US India oil talks.
Background: India Russian Oil Ties Since 2022
India Russian oil imports surged after Western sanctions on Moscow in 2022. By 2023, Russia supplied over 40 per cent of India’s crude. This saved billions in import bills.
Discounted prices made Russian oil attractive. Imports peaked at 2.1 million barrels per day in mid-2023. But US pressure mounted from 2024.
In 2025, India Russian oil imports averaged 1.5 million barrels per day. December’s drop signalled a shift. January’s further decline ties to US India oil talks.
Official data from Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell shows December imports at 21.59 million metric tons total crude, up 6.9 per cent year-on-year. Russian share fell.
Geopolitical factors drive the Russian oil decline India. Moscow’s oil revenue funds nearly a quarter of its budget. Reduced Indian buys could cut billions from Russian earnings.
South Asia feels the impact. India’s diversification may stabilise supplies but raise costs. Neighbouring nations rely on Indian refineries for products.
What’s Next for India Russian Oil Imports
India Russian oil imports may fall to 1.0 million barrels per day in February and 0.8 million in March. Refiners need time to wind down contracts.
The Trump India trade deal requires ratification. If enacted, India shifts to US and Venezuelan sources. This could boost bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030.
US India oil talks continue. New Delhi balances energy security with alliances. Analysts watch for official import data releases.
Russian responses remain key. Moscow may offer deeper discounts to retain market share.
In conclusion, the ongoing decline in India Russian oil imports reshapes global energy flows.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, February 5th, 2026
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