US President Donald Trump stated on 15 October 2025 that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him India will stop Russian oil import. The announcement came during a White House event where Trump spoke to reporters. This follows US tariffs on Indian exports aimed at pressuring New Delhi over its Russian oil purchases. This Modi Trump Russian oil pledge matters in South Asia as India relies on affordable energy for growth. Halting imports could raise costs, affect economies in the region, and alter ties with Russia while strengthening US-India relations amid the Ukraine conflict.
Modi Trump Russian Oil Pledge Details
Trump revealed the assurance after expressing discontent with India’s purchases. He said Modi assured him during a discussion on 15 October 2025. Trump noted India cannot halt shipments immediately due to existing processes but the transition will conclude soon.
Quotes from Trump include: “I was not happy that India was buying oil, and he assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia. That’s a big step. Now we’ve got to get China to do the same thing.” He added: “You can’t do it immediately. It’s a little bit of a process, but that process will be over soon.”
The US has pushed India for months to cease Russian oil imports, viewing them as funding Moscow’s actions in Ukraine. In August 2025, Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on Indian goods as a penalty. This Modi Trump Russian oil pledge appears to respond to that pressure.
India Halts Russian Oil Imports 2025 Impact
India has become a major buyer of Russian crude since 2022 sanctions on Moscow. Data shows Russia supplied 1.62 million barrels per day to India in September 2025, about one-third of total imports. Overall, India imported 4.88 million barrels per day that month, up 3.5 percent year-on-year.
Reports indicate Russian imports fell 8.4 percent from April to September 2025 compared to the prior year, due to narrower discounts and supply constraints.
If India halts Russian oil imports 2025, refiners may turn to Middle Eastern suppliers like Saudi Arabia or Iraq. This shift could increase costs by 10-15 percent, given Russian crude’s discounts. India’s economy, with over 1.4 billion people, consumes oil at a growing rate and is set to surpass China by 2030.
The move aligns with US goals to isolate Russia economically. Trump mentioned aiming for similar commitments from China, the top buyer of Russian oil. A halt by India could reduce Moscow’s revenues by billions, potentially hastening negotiations in Ukraine.
Background
India’s ties with Russia date back decades, including defence and energy. Post-2022 Ukraine invasion, India ramped up oil imports to secure energy at low prices. Officials defended this as vital for national security amid global volatility.
US pressure escalated in 2025. Trump’s tariffs targeted sectors like steel and textiles. He criticised purchases as sustaining Russia’s war, claiming 1.5 million losses there. Despite resistance, the Modi Trump Russian oil pledge suggests a policy pivot.
Other nations like China and Turkey continue buying Russian crude. If India halts Russian oil imports 2025, it may encourage others but risks supply disruptions in South Asia. Neighbouring countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh, reliant on stable energy markets, could face indirect effects from price fluctuations.
Economic Ramifications in South Asia
South Asia’s energy landscape hinges on affordable imports. India’s decision to honour the Modi Trump Russian oil pledge could spike regional fuel prices. Analysts estimate a 5-7 percent rise in petrol and diesel costs if alternatives cost more.
India’s refineries, optimised for Russian grades, may need upgrades costing USD 500 million. This could slow growth in manufacturing and transport sectors. However, closer US ties might bring investments and technology transfers.
Government subsidies may cushion impacts, but fiscal strain could affect welfare programmes.
Geopolitically, this strengthens the Quad alliance involving India, US, Japan, and Australia. It may strain India-Russia relations, though Trump suggested resuming purchases post-Ukraine war.
Global Context
Russia exported over 8 million barrels per day in 2025, with Asia absorbing most post-European bans. India’s share, at 20 percent of Russian seaborne crude, is significant. Halting could force Russia to offer deeper discounts elsewhere, altering markets.
US strategy under Trump focuses on bilateral pressures over multilateral sanctions. Success with India on the Modi Trump Russian oil pledge bolsters this approach. China, buying 2.2 million barrels per day from Russia, remains a challenge amid trade tensions.
What’s Next
Observers watch for implementation details. If India halts Russian oil imports 2025, contracts may phase out by mid-year. Diplomatic talks could clarify timelines. Trump says Modi assured India stop Russian oil, marking a potential turning point in energy diplomacy.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, October 16th, 2025
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