The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has projected that Pakistan FX reserves will surpass $17.5 billion by the end of fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26). This marks a significant increase from the $14.5 billion reported at the close of FY25 on June 30, 2025.
Details of Pakistan FX Reserves
The forecast was revealed during a recent monetary policy briefing, where the SBP also announced that the key interest rate would remain steady at 11%.
Despite expected foreign debt repayments and rollovers totaling around $25.9 billion in FY26, the SBP expressed confidence in reserve growth. The central bank noted that reserves could rise further if Pakistan successfully taps into global capital markets through instruments like Eurobonds.
Economic projections also show a promising outlook, with GDP growth estimated between 3.25% and 4.25%, backed by recovery in the agriculture sector and continued strength in industry and services. This aligns closely with the IMF’s estimate of 3.6% growth for the same period.
The current account deficit is expected to stay within 0–1% of GDP, transitioning from the surplus seen in FY25. Inflation, meanwhile, is forecasted to stay between 5% and 7%, although risks remain from global commodity volatility, energy tariff adjustments, and potential flooding.
Commentary across platforms like X (formerly Twitter) shows cautious optimism, with analysts praising the SBP’s efforts in monetary stability and debt management. Overall, the projections reflect growing confidence in Pakistan’s ability to stabilize its economy despite global and domestic pressures.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, July 30th, 2025
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