A significant decline in rice exports has contributed to a downturn in Pakistan’s food shipments for the fiscal year 2025, halting a 20-month streak of consistent growth in raw food exports. The value of non-basmati rice exports dropped by 17.42% to $2.522 billion, with a 4.65% reduction in quantity, totaling 5.009 million tonnes. This slump follows a period of robust growth, with rice exports previously rising by 14.50% year-on-year to $1.87 billion in the first half of FY25, driven by strong demand in markets like the European Union, the UK, and emerging destinations such as Bangladesh.
The decline is attributed to a 3.7% drop in rice production during the Kharif 2024 season, leading to depleted stocks and a projected 15% fall in exports for the April–June 2025 quarter. Despite Pakistan maintaining a competitive edge in high-end markets through quality-focused strategies, competition from India’s low-priced rice, offered at $349 per tonne for 25% broken non-basmati, poses challenges. Other food sectors also faced setbacks, with meat exports declining by 3.24% and vegetable and fruit shipments decreasing by 14.53% and 10.29%, respectively. Meanwhile, fish and fish product exports saw a 13.44% increase, offering a silver lining.
Domestic price surges have compounded the issue, with buffalo meat prices soaring from Rs700 to Rs1,600 per kg over the past three and a half years, limiting affordability for local consumers. The government’s decision to allow 150,000 tonnes of sugar exports in June 2024, which ballooned to 757,779 tonnes by March 2025, prompted restrictions to stabilize domestic supply. On a positive note, non-textile exports, including leather, footwear, and engineering goods like industrial machinery and auto parts, grew by 16.46%, providing some balance to the trade landscape.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, July 20th, 2025
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