US President Donald Trump has warned of higher India tariffs, unless New Delhi reduces Russian oil imports. The threat, issued on 5 January 2026, highlights growing US-India trade tensions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump have discussed the issue multiple times.
US President Donald Trump warned India on 5 January 2026 that Washington could impose higher tariffs if New Delhi fails to curb Russian oil imports India. The statement, made aboard Air Force One, underscores escalating US-India trade tensions. Trump praised Modi as a “good guy” but stressed the need to satisfy US demands on energy trade.
The warning comes as India seeks to balance energy needs with international pressures. In South Asia, where energy security affects economic stability, such tariffs could impact regional trade dynamics, including Pakistan’s monitoring of India’s US relations. Higher costs might ripple through supply chains, affecting consumers and industries across the subcontinent.
US-India Trade Tensions Intensify
Trump’s comments build on previous actions. Last year, the US doubled import tariffs on Indian goods to 50 per cent as punishment for high Russian oil imports India. Despite this, India’s exports to the US rose in November 2025, according to Ministry of Commerce and Industry data.
“They do trade, and we can raise tariffs on them very quickly,” Trump said, referring to India’s ongoing purchases. He added that Modi “knew I was not happy, and it was important to make me happy.” These quotes reflect direct pressure on Modi Trump talks.
India’s government has pushed back. A foreign ministry spokesperson called the threat “unjustified and unreasonable,” emphasising India’s right to independent energy decisions. Officials deny any policy shift on Russian oil imports India, citing the need for affordable supplies amid global volatility.
Russian Oil Imports India Decline Noted
Data shows a downward trend in Russian oil imports India. In November 2025, India imported 7.7 million tonnes of crude from Russia, up 6.8 per cent from the previous year but part of a broader dip. Kpler estimates suggest imports fell to 1.77 million barrels per day in November, with December projections at 1.1 million barrels per day.
Russia supplied 35 per cent of India’s oil in 2025, down from prior peaks. Government sources indicate imports could drop below 1 million barrels per day soon. To monitor this, India now requires refiners to submit weekly disclosures on Russian and US oil purchases.
US crude imports to India surged 92 per cent in the first eight months of the 2025-26 fiscal year. This shift aims to strengthen ties with Washington, potentially easing US-India trade tensions.
Background on Modi Trump Talks
Modi and Trump have spoken at least three times by phone since the tariffs began. Discussions focus on bilateral trade, but outcomes remain inconclusive. In December 2025, India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal met US Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer in Delhi to review economic ties.
The US views India’s Russian oil imports India as undermining sanctions against Moscow. Trump administration officials argue that such purchases fund Russia’s activities. India counters that its imports ensure energy affordability for its 1.4 billion population.
In the 2025-26 financial year, India imported roughly USD 31.6 billion in goods from Russia, per Ministry data. This includes oil, fertilisers, and machinery. Tariffs could add billions in costs, affecting sectors like IT and pharmaceuticals, key to South Asian economies.
What’s Next in Trump India Tariffs Saga
Analysts predict further Modi Trump talks to resolve the impasse. India may leverage its growing US oil imports as a bargaining chip. If tariffs rise, New Delhi could explore alternatives like increased sourcing from the Middle East.
The situation tests India’s strategic autonomy. South Asian neighbours watch closely, as US-India trade tensions could influence regional alliances. A trade deal might emerge if India further reduces Russian oil imports India.
Experts suggest monitoring upcoming bilateral meetings. Any escalation in Trump India tariffs could prompt retaliatory measures from India, heightening US-India trade tensions.
In conclusion, the ongoing dispute over Russian oil imports India places Trump India tariffs at the forefront of diplomatic efforts. Resolution depends on forthcoming Modi Trump talks.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, January 5th, 2026
Follow SouthAsianDesk on X, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business and current affairs from across South Asia.
