Dhaka, Saturday, September 21, 2025 – A recent PEPS survey indicates that seven in ten Bangladeshis express confidence in the interim government’s ability to conduct a fair election, highlighting public expectations for credible polls amid ongoing reforms. The PEPS survey conducted in September 2025 across Bangladesh, involved stratified random sampling and face-to-face interviews to gauge sentiments on electoral integrity.
This optimism persists despite pockets of scepticism, particularly among younger demographics, underscoring the challenges in building universal trust for the anticipated February 2026 polls. The findings, released today, reflect a cautiously positive public mood seven months into the interim regime’s tenure.
Why This Survey Matters for a Fair Election
In the context of South Asia’s volatile political landscapes, where electoral credibility often determines regional stability, this survey underscores Bangladesh’s pivotal transition following the 2024 uprising. A fair election here could bolster democratic norms across the neighbourhood, from India’s border dynamics to broader Bay of Bengal security, by demonstrating that post-authoritarian reforms can yield inclusive governance. For Bangladesh, it signals progress towards legitimacy, yet highlights the need to address urban-rural divides to prevent disenfranchisement that might ripple into social unrest.
Key Insights from the PEPS Survey on Fair Election Expectations
The second round of the PEPS survey, released on Saturday, September 21, 2025, at 3:38 PM, builds on initial findings from March 2025, which captured early hopes for stability post the interim government’s formation in August 2024. According to the survey organisers, 70 per cent of respondents believe the administration can deliver a free and fair election, a figure that aligns with broader aspirations for transparent voting processes.
Delving deeper, 77.5 per cent of participants anticipate casting their ballots without fear, though this confidence dips in urban areas where concerns over polling station security and police impartiality loom larger. The survey’s methodology ensured representation across gender, age, education levels, and urban-rural splits, employing structured questionnaires with rigorous quality controls to mitigate biases. While the exact sample size remains unspecified in the primary release, the nationwide scope provides a robust snapshot of public sentiment in Bangladesh.
Regional variations further illuminate the nuances of fair election perceptions. Barisal division emerges as the most pessimistic, with lower assurances on voter safety, whereas Rangpur and Rajshahi residents report the highest levels of trust in secure polling environments. These disparities emphasise the importance of targeted interventions to foster equitable access to the ballot, ensuring a truly fair election landscape.
Demographic Divides in Confidence for Fair Elections
Scepticism towards a fair election is most pronounced among students, educated professionals, and urban dwellers, groups that played pivotal roles in the 2024 protests demanding democratic accountability. The survey reveals that these cohorts express heightened doubts about institutional neutrality, particularly regarding law enforcement’s role in election oversight. This generational and locational gap could challenge the legitimacy of upcoming polls if unaddressed, as younger voters—often more vocal on platforms like social media—may disengage if their concerns are sidelined.
In contrast, rural respondents and older demographics display stronger faith in the interim setup’s capacity for impartiality. The survey data indicates that while overall optimism prevails, bridging these divides is essential for a fair election that resonates nationwide. For instance, professionals and teachers show marginally higher opposition to the proposed timeline, reflecting broader anxieties about rushed reforms potentially compromising electoral fairness.
Support for Timeline in Bangladesh’s Path to Fair Polls
An overwhelming 86.5 per cent of respondents back holding the general election in February 2026, viewing it as a balanced window for necessary institutional overhauls. This endorsement comes amid debates on reform pacing, with the interim government prioritising changes to the election commission and judiciary to underpin a fair election framework. However, opposition from student and teacher groups, key stakeholders in the reform discourse, suggests that accelerating dialogue could enhance buy-in.
The PEPS survey’s emphasis on electoral roadmap optimism aligns with earlier polls, such as those from the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies in July 2025, which noted declining but still positive approval for government activities at 63 per cent. These trends collectively paint a picture of cautious hope, where public faith in a fair election hinges on tangible progress in addressing law-and-order concerns flagged since the regime’s inception.
Background
The PEPS initiative, launched to monitor public pulse on governance and elections, stems from the power vacuum left by the ouster of the previous administration in August 2024. Round one, published in March 2025, highlighted initial optimism tempered by worries over political violence and stability. Conducted seven months later, round two captures evolving views in a nation still healing from the July Revolution, where demands for fair elections catalysed widespread change. This ongoing tracking mechanism aids policymakers in calibrating reforms, ensuring that public expectations for a fair election remain central to Bangladesh’s democratic revival.
Implications for Ensuring a Fair Election
As Bangladesh navigates this transitional phase, the survey’s revelations call for proactive measures to amplify confidence, particularly among sceptical urban youth. Strengthening police reforms and enhancing polling security could transform pockets of doubt into widespread endorsement, paving the way for a fair election that not only meets procedural standards but also fosters national unity. With the February 2026 date on the horizon, sustained engagement will be key to translating survey optimism into electoral reality.
In conclusion, the PEPS survey reinforces that a fair election remains within reach for Bangladesh, provided the interim government heeds these voices of measured hope and addresses lingering fears head-on.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, September 21st, 2025
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