Pakistan’s inflation is anticipated to rise in April 2026, with the Ministry of Finance projecting an increase to 8-9%. This escalation is attributed to ongoing supply chain disruptions and global uncertainties, despite signs of macroeconomic stability in the country.
In its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for April 2026, the Ministry highlighted that the primary drivers of inflationary pressures are supply-side constraints. These challenges persist even as the broader economy shows signs of stability.
The report underscored that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have intensified uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic outlook. The Ministry expects the consumer price index to climb from 7.3% in March to between 8-9% in April.
Despite these challenges, the report pointed to the resilience of key economic indicators. Notably, the overall primary surplus during the first eight months of the current fiscal year was 3.3% of GDP, equivalent to Rs4.319 trillion, compared to 3% or Rs3.452 trillion in the same period last year.
Looking ahead, while external demand may remain supportive in certain markets, the balance of risks is less favorable than in pre-war settings. The Ministry’s outlook suggests continued vigilance in monitoring economic indicators as global conditions evolve.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, May 1, 2026
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