Rising Chenab River waters threaten mass evacuations and potential embankment breaches in southern Punjab, as authorities brace for a pivotal period amid the ongoing monsoon deluge.
Lahore, Tuesday, September 10, 2025 – South Punjab flood critical next 2 days as overflowing Chenab River inundates districts like Multan and Muzaffargarh, displacing over 200,000 people due to heavy monsoon rains and upstream water releases from India, with authorities warning of imminent risks through Thursday, September 12, 2025.
Authorities in Punjab province have declared the situation an unprecedented flood emergency, prompting large-scale relocations and preparations for possible breaches in flood defences. The crisis, triggered by the 10th monsoon spell, has seen the Chenab swell to dangerous levels, affecting agriculture and infrastructure in southern areas. Rescue operations continue, supported by provincial and federal agencies, while international aid begins to flow in.
The floods in south Punjab highlight the escalating impact of climate-driven monsoons on Pakistan’s agricultural heartland, which supplies much of the nation’s food grains.
With over 1.95 million acres of farmland submerged, the disaster threatens national food security and economic stability, potentially raising prices and straining resources across South Asia. For the region, where shared river systems like the Chenab and Sutlej span borders, such events underscore the need for transboundary cooperation under treaties like the Indus Waters Treaty, while amplifying vulnerabilities in neighbouring India and Afghanistan to similar weather extremes.
Current Flood Situation in South Punjab
The Chenab River’s second major flood wave is passing through key points like Head Muhammadwala and Shershah bridges, placing Multan, Muzaffargarh, Shujabad, Khangarh, Jalalpur Pirwala, Uch Sharif, and Alipur on high alert. As of Tuesday evening, the water level at Shershah stood at 393.40 feet, just 0.10 feet below the critical mark of 393.50 feet. Officials have readied plans to breach the Shershah embankment if levels rise further, a move that could impact 8,000 houses and 30,000 residents but protect urban centres.
In Muzaffargarh, 138 mouzas remain submerged, affecting 135,000 people, while 28 mouzas in Rangpur have displaced 50,000 more. The road linking Multan and Muzaffargarh via Shershah Bridge was temporarily closed but reopened for light vehicles by evening. Multan Deputy Commissioner Waseem Hamid Sindhu reported a flood flow of 500,000 cusecs from Head Trimmu reaching Head Muhammadwala, with an additional 2,000 rescues in Jalalpur Pirwala over the past 24 hours. Commissioner Aamir Karim Khan noted that 50 villages there have been hit, relocating 235,296 people and 180,377 livestock heads to safer spots.
The Sutlej River is in high flood, exacerbated by releases from Indian dams, with 253,000 cusecs passing at Ganda Singh Wala as of 11:30 PM on Tuesday. PDMA Director General Irfan Kathia stated that upper Punjab areas would normalise in a day or two, with 300,000 cusecs receding at Trimmu Barrage and crossing Head Panjnad. A surge of 400,000 cusecs approaches Guddu Barrage, expected to ease pressure in south Punjab. Overall, 80,000 people are in 488 relief camps, with 2.1 million evacuated province-wide. Agricultural losses span 1.95 million acres.
According to the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), the 10th monsoon spell has concluded, with no further heavy rains anticipated in Punjab, potentially averting a third flood wave. However, a Pakistan Meteorological Department official cautioned that the monsoon persists in India, where it starts earlier and lasts longer, possibly triggering downstream effects in Pakistan. Long-term forecasts remain uncertain.
Casualties and Broader Impacts
The floods have claimed lives amid the chaos. In Punjab, one girl died from a rain-induced roof collapse in the last 24 hours, though the location was unspecified. In Karachi, three fatalities occurred: two teenagers from electrocution and one drowning due to widespread rains. The deep depression causing these downpours is shifting towards Balochistan, forecast to bring rain, windstorms, and thundershowers to southern Balochistan and lower Sindh on Wednesday, September 11, 2025, with scattered heavy falls possible.
Rural areas in Tharparkar and Dadu districts of Sindh have seen hundreds of straw-mud houses washed away after days of intermittent rains. River data as of 11:30 PM Tuesday shows steady flows on the Chenab: 69,300 cusecs at Marala, 97,898 at Khanki, 98,316 at Qadirabad, 79,914 at Chiniot Bridge, 339,292 at Trimmu, 413.70 feet at Head Muhammadwala (steady), and 393.40 feet at Shershah (steady).
Panjnad reports 475,129 cusecs, rising due to backwater from the Indus. Ravi flows are steady at 28,040 cusecs at Jassar, 42,731 at Ravi Syphon, 42,380 at Shahdara, falling at 93,305 at Balloki, and steady at 129,470 at Sidhnai. Sutlej remains steady: 230,738 at G.S. Wala, 133,097 at Sulemanki, 121,357 at Islam, 120,150 at Mailsi Syphon. Indus at Guddu Barrage is steady at 443,494 cusecs.
International Response and Government Directives
United Nations Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher announced a $5 million (£3.9 million) allocation from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to aid Pakistan’s flood response. The funds will support UN agencies in delivering life-saving assistance to four million affected individuals, including over two million displaced. President Asif Ali Zardari has instructed the Ministry of National Food Security to implement urgent measures ensuring food supplies amid the devastation.
Background on the Monsoon Floods
This year’s floods, part of the 2025 Pakistan monsoon crisis, began with pre-monsoon rains in June and intensified through August, marking the worst in Punjab since 1988. Heavy downpours, combined with releases from Indian dams on shared rivers, have led to exceptional high floods in the Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej systems.
Earlier waves submerged over 1,400 villages and displaced millions, with Punjab bearing the brunt due to its fertile plains and dense population. The Provincial Disaster Management Authority has coordinated evacuations, relief camps, and embankment reinforcements, drawing on lessons from the 2022 floods that killed over 1,700 nationwide.
What’s Next for South Punjab Flood: Critical Next 2 Days
As south Punjab flood critical next 2 days unfold, monitoring river levels and weather patterns will be paramount, with potential for further evacuations if thresholds are breached. Sustained relief efforts and international support could mitigate long-term impacts, but resolving uncertainties around a possible third wave remains key to restoring normalcy in the affected regions.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, September 10th, 2025
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