Gold prices rise in India in November 2025, reaching ₹126,900 per 10 grams by mid-month, up 6.5 per cent from early lows, driven by global tensions and a weaker dollar. This surge, reported on Tuesday, November 19, 2025, stems from US policy shifts and inflation fears, affecting buyers across major cities like Mumbai and Delhi. Analysts link the increase to broader economic signals, with spot prices hovering above $4,000 per ounce internationally.
Ripple Effects Across South Asia
The uptick in gold prices holds significance for South Asia, where India accounts for a quarter of global demand. Higher rates strain household budgets in neighbouring nations like Pakistan and Bangladesh, which rely on Indian imports for jewellery and reserves. This could curb regional trade flows and inflate remittance costs, underscoring gold’s role as a hedge in volatile economies.
Reasons Gold Surge India 2025 Unfolds Amid Global Uncertainty
Gold prices rose in India in November 2025 amid a cocktail of factors that amplified investor appetite. A weakening US dollar, down 2 per cent against the rupee this month, made imports cheaper and boosted appeal. Geopolitical risks, including escalating US-China tariff disputes, added fuel, as investors sought safe-haven assets.
Central bank buying played a pivotal role. India’s Reserve Bank added 10 tonnes to reserves in October alone, part of a 2025 trend where emerging markets scooped up 500 tonnes globally. Inflation expectations, ticking up 0.25 per cent in October per Ministry of Statistics data, further propelled the rally. “Persistent global economic instability, from recession fears to bank wobbles, underpins this momentum,” noted a World Gold Council report.
Domestic dynamics compounded the effect. Festive season leftovers from Diwali saw a 5 per cent demand spike early November, per India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) figures. Spot prices jumped from ₹119,150 per 10 grams on November 7 to the current peak, reflecting a 6.5 per cent monthly gain. This marks the sharpest November rise since 2022, outpacing last year’s 4 per cent climb.
Interest rate trajectories sealed the deal. The US Federal Reserve’s minutes hinted at slower cuts, yet gold thrived on lower real yields. In India, the Reserve Bank held rates steady, preserving gold’s allure over bonds yielding 6.8 per cent.
High Gold Rates Impact Indian Jewellery Demand in Tangible Ways
High gold rates have curbed Indian jewellery demand, with sales dipping 27 per cent year-on-year in Q3 2025. Traditional buyers, facing ₹1,26,900 per 10 grams, shifted to lighter designs or coins, per Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) data.
The sector, employing 5 million artisans, feels the pinch hardest. Exports fell 31 per cent in October to $2.17 billion, as high prices eroded competitiveness against Thai and Turkish rivals. “Record highs dimmed festive shine, with jewellery fabrication down amid cultural pull,” stated World Gold Council Research Head Kavita Chacko in a November update.
Rural markets bore the brunt, where gold symbolises savings. Demand for 22-carat pieces dropped 15 per cent in villages, as per IBJA surveys, pushing consumers towards silver alternatives. Urban centres like Delhi saw a 10 per cent volume slide, though value rose 20 per cent due to premium pricing.
This shift ripples to supply chains. Refineries in Mumbai idled 20 per cent capacity, while scrap recycling surged 12 per cent as households offloaded old holdings. Overall gold demand held at 750 tonnes for the first 10 months, flat against 2024, but jewellery’s 2 per cent contraction to 550 tonnes signals caution.
Gold Price Forecast India December 2025: Upside Risks Loom
Analysts eye further gains for gold price forecast India December 2025, with spot rates potentially hitting ₹1,37,000 per 10 grams. LongForecast projects a 7 per cent climb from November closes, buoyed by year-end positioning.
Key drivers include US jobs data due December 6, which could sway Fed paths. A softer print might weaken the dollar anew, lifting prices 3-5 per cent. Geopolitical flares, from Middle East tensions to election aftershocks, add volatility premiums.
In India, wedding season could inject 150 tonnes of demand, offsetting high rates’ drag. Yet, if rupee strengthens beyond 83 to the dollar, imports ease and prices stabilise. World Gold Council forecasts annual averages at $4,200 per ounce, implying ₹1,30,000 domestically.
Downside risks persist: A hawkish Fed or China slowdown could cap gains at 2 per cent. IBJA warns of seasonal corrections post-Diwali, but consensus tilts bullish.
Background: A Year of Record Highs
Gold prices rose in India in November 2025, capping a year of 28 per cent gains. From January’s ₹65,000 baseline, rates doubled amid 2025’s turmoil, US elections, supply snarls, and 40 per cent global surges. Central banks hoarded 1,000 tonnes, dwarfing jewellery’s fade.
This trajectory echoes 2020’s pandemic boom, when prices jumped 25 per cent. India’s 800-tonne annual intake remains unmatched, fuelling a $100 billion market.
What’s Next after Gold Prices Rise
Policymakers mull duty tweaks to balance demand and deficits. Exporters lobby for rebates, while buyers eye digital gold for affordability. As reasons gold surge India 2025 evolve, high gold rates impact Indian jewellery demand will test resilience. Gold prices rose in India in November 2025, setting a cautious tone for 2026’s uncertain horizon.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, November 19th, 2025
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