The Chenab River water level is likely to surge significantly over the next couple of days following ongoing rain in the catchment areas of Indian-administered Kashmir and fresh spells of heavy rainfall across parts of Punjab. A senior official of the Punjab Irrigation Department said on Monday that the river is currently flowing in medium flood, but that the Chenab River water level could enter the high-flood category if forecast rains materialise over the next three to four days in both held Kashmir and Punjab.
“The situation may turn critical if there are heavy rains, as predicted, in the catchment areas of held Kashmir and Punjab,” the official said, underlining how closely officials are monitoring the Chenab River water level as the monsoon intensifies. Authorities in Punjab are on alert for the possibility of a rapid escalation should the forecast rainfall arrive as expected in the coming days.
Pakistan Meteorological Department Flood Warning Covers Major Rivers
The Pakistan Meteorological Department’s Flood Forecasting Division issued a warning on Monday of high flood levels in major rivers, including the Chenab, and in numerous smaller waterways, with heavy rain expected to persist until July 24. According to the division’s flood bulletin, flows in all major rivers are likely to increase substantially by that date due to a prevailing westerly weather system combined with a strong monsoon incursion from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal over the catchments of the country’s principal rivers.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department flood warning specifically flagged high flood levels expected in the Chenab at Marala, prompting close attention to the Marala high flood level as a key indicator for downstream communities. The bulletin also forecast high flows in the Jhelum upstream of Mangla and in associated nullahs of the Jhelum and Chenab, including Dora, Dotta, Dowara, Bhimber, Halsi, Aik and Palkhu, as well as in Ravi tributaries such as Bein, Bassanter, Deg and Sakki. High flows are also expected in the Kabul River and its tributaries.
Chenab River Water Level -Punjab Flood Forecast Warns of Flash and Urban Flooding
Beyond the major rivers, the Punjab flood forecast issued by the Flood Forecasting Division warned of flash flooding in the hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan, in streams across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Balochistan, and of urban flooding in a wide swathe of Punjab cities. Areas named in the Punjab flood forecast include Rawalpindi, Jhelum, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Khushab, Sialkot, Gujrat, Narowal, Lahore, Okara, Sahiwal, Bahawalnagar and Faisalabad, all of which face an elevated risk of urban flooding as rainfall accumulates over the coming days.
Jhelum River Flow and Current Gauge Readings
Current data shows the Jhelum river flow running in the low to medium flood range at Mangla and Rasul, while the Chenab is already flowing in medium to high flood at Marala, Khanki and Qadirabad. By contrast, the Indus River was reported flowing at low and below-low levels at several stations, including Tarbela, Kalabagh, Chashma, Taunsa, Guddu, Sukkur and Kotri, and the Ravi and Sutlej rivers were flowing below-low flood, according to the Flood Forecasting Division.
The daily water report issued by the Water and Power Development Authority recorded inflows and outflows in the Indus at Tarbela at 232,500 cusecs and 210,000 cusecs respectively. The same report placed the Jhelum river flow at Mangla at 57,400 cusecs of inflow against 10,000 cusecs of outflow, figures that officials will be watching closely as they assess how quickly the Chenab River water level and other river systems respond to the rain expected over the next several days.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, July 21, 2026
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