India’s fertility rate decline has accelerated to a historic threshold, with the country’s total fertility rate falling to 1.9 children per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1 required to sustain a population at its current size, according to the latest Sample Registration System statistical report released last month by India’s Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner.
The figure marks a sharp departure from the early 2000s, when India’s total fertility rate stood at approximately 3.3 births per woman. Experts attribute the shift to a combination of rising living costs, expanding educational opportunities for women, changed career aspirations, and significantly improved access to contraception across both urban and rural India.
India’s Fertility Rate Decline: Careers and Choice in an Urbanising Society
For a growing number of educated urban women, the decision not to have children, or to defer it substantially, is one made in the context of professional ambition rather than cultural pressure. Nidhi Agarwal, 41, who runs a public relations company in Bengaluru and has been married for nine years, told Al Jazeera that she and her husband decided before marriage that children would not be part of their plan.
“Before marriage, we never discussed kids. We spoke about finances and our career goals,” she said. “After marriage, we did have a conversation about children and both of us felt that we wanted to focus on our careers and build companies which could have a bigger impact on society.”
Dr Jyotsna Mirlay, a consultant gynaecologist in Bengaluru, said higher levels of education and globalisation mean today’s young women are far less likely than their mothers or grandmothers to accept the traditional narrative that marriage and children are prerequisites for a settled life. The message that women must sideline their careers to raise children has, in her assessment, lost its credibility with the 30 to 40 age group, who are more financially independent and better placed to exercise genuine choice.
She has observed couples in her clinic increasingly timing decisions around conception to fit career trajectories. “I’ve seen couples question why they should have children when they are doing well in their careers,” she said. “They are often in a dilemma about whether having children will add value to their lives or if it is just a necessity to fit into society.”
Human rights lawyer Shweta Luthra, 41, who was also based in Bengaluru, offered a personal illustration of the trade-offs involved. She married at 23 with no immediate interest in children and moved to the United Kingdom with her partner to pursue a PhD, only to discover she was pregnant. She described parenthood as requiring a “sweet spot” in career terms: either early, before professional momentum builds, or later, once leadership positions offer enough flexibility to manage both.
India now has more than 2,000 fertility centres offering egg freezing, a development that has made it easier for women to delay motherhood without foreclosing the option entirely, allowing them to avoid feeling pressured to conceive during critical periods in their working lives.
The Weight of Rising Costs
Beyond career choice, India’s rising cost of living is exerting direct pressure on family-planning decisions. India’s consumer price inflation rose for the sixth consecutive month in April 2026 to 3.48 percent, up from 3.40 percent in March, according to the Ministry of Statistics. The Reserve Bank of India has warned that an escalation in the US-Israel war on Iran could add further inflationary pressure.
The economic arithmetic confronting young Indians is stark. The International Monetary Fund puts India’s average annual income at $2,878 for 2025, or just under $240 per month, while cost-of-living data from Numbeo, the world’s largest such database, estimates monthly living costs for a single person in India at 27,664 rupees, equivalent to $290, before rent. The gap between income and basic expenditure leaves little room for the financial commitments that child-rearing demands.
Roopa, 36, a team leader at a large electronics company in Bengaluru, said she grew up watching her single mother work long hours as a housekeeper to raise her and her brother. She is not yet married but is clear that she would only consider children once she has genuine financial security. “With the rising cost of living, many of us want to take time to consider our financial stability and career goals before expanding our families,” she said.
Luthra made a related observation about the spending choices of younger Indians: many, she said, are prioritising holidays, dining, and leisure over parenthood, having concluded that the financial and personal costs of raising children are simply incompatible with the lifestyle they want.
Regional Divides: Education and Infant Mortality
India’s fertility data reveals a pronounced regional divide that maps closely onto differences in education levels and infant mortality rates. Bihar, with the country’s lowest educational attainment and high infant mortality, recorded the highest fertility rate at 2.9. Uttar Pradesh followed at 2.6. By contrast, Delhi, with among the highest educational attainment and lowest infant mortality in the country, registered a fertility rate of just 1.2 births per woman. The southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which have India’s strongest health and education systems, recorded 1.3.
Infant mortality has declined nationally, from 30 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 per 1,000 in 2024, a trend experts attribute to improvements in institutional delivery rates, immunisation access, and healthcare infrastructure. Historically, declining infant mortality is associated with a corresponding decline in fertility, as families no longer need to have more children to ensure that some survive. India’s regional data appears to confirm that pattern.
Contraception and Support Systems
Dr Mirlay said improved access to oral contraceptive pills through chemists and primary health centres, including in smaller cities and rural areas, has been a material factor in enabling more women to exercise informed choice over when or whether to have children. Access to contraception, she said, has extended beyond large urban centres in a way that was simply not the case in earlier generations.
She also noted the role of social support structures in shaping fertility decisions. The traditional Indian family model, in which grandparents assist with childcare, works well when couples have children young. Those who delay parenthood into their mid-to-late thirties may find that parental support is no longer available, making them reliant on nannies and daycare facilities, the cost of which adds a further financial deterrent.
The legal framework for parental leave presents its own complications. Working women in India are entitled to 26 weeks of paid maternity leave for their first two children, reduced to 12 weeks for subsequent children and for adoptions. Federal government employees are entitled to 15 days of paid paternity leave, but no equivalent provision exists in federal law for the private sector, leaving paternity leave arrangements at the discretion of individual employers. Luthra cited one case of a male friend whose employer, on being told the man’s partner was expecting a child, responded by asking what nannies and daycares were for.
Rising Infertility and State Responses
The picture is complicated further by a parallel rise in infertility. Studies show that the infertility rate in India increased from 22.4 percent in 1992-93 to 30.7 percent in 2015-16, a trend Dr Mirlay partly attributes to poor metabolic health, obesity, and hormonal imbalances driven by compromised lifestyles. She noted that while fertility clinics have multiplied, the cost of treatment deters many couples from pursuing it.
Several state governments have begun responding to the falling fertility rate with direct financial incentives. Andhra Pradesh, where the fertility rate stands at 1.4, announced last month that it will offer 30,000 rupees to couples on the birth of a third child and 40,000 rupees for a fourth. Goa, Karnataka, and Telangana have established state-funded IVF centres to encourage first-time parents.
Dr Mirlay, however, questioned whether financial inducements would have any meaningful effect on couples who have made deliberate, informed decisions about family size. Rather than simply encouraging people to have more children, she said, the government should be asking why couples in their thirties and early forties are finding conception so difficult, addressing the underlying health and lifestyle factors driving involuntary infertility alongside the economic and social factors driving voluntary choices to have fewer children.
For Agarwal in Bengaluru, the conversation ultimately comes back to autonomy. “Reproduction is and should be a personal choice. It might take time to understand people’s choices but society should accept and respect it,” she said.
Published in SouthAsianDesk, June 15, 2026
Follow SouthAsianDesk on X, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business and current affairs from across South Asia.
